classhandicapper wrote:

> CTC,
>
> "I would need more information to try and figure out what Quinn
> was saying 17 lengths is undoubtedly a lot of Beyer points.
> Essentially it looks like hes implying the others regressed and
> they got the variant wrong which essentially was my position."
>
> The pace of the Wood was essentially in line with the final
> time.

I really wasn't discussing Pace because I dont' think Pace was really a factor in the Wood. To me the whole issue was track effect and regression. But, when a horse gets it all his own way you get real nice energy expenditure fractional times like we saw in the Wood. Sure it looked good. The conditions were Ideal.

>By definition, that means the pace was fast for the class
> because no matter what you assign the race - anything between
> 110 and 120 is still very fast for the bunch of Grade 3 animals
> that were chasing Bellamy Road.

Agreed a final figure of 110 was probably outside of the ability of Bellamanias Wood competitiors.


> IMO, several horses clearly raced close enough to BR to be
> impacted by that pace. I played Scrappy T in the Withers for
> that very reason.

Like I said, I didn't think Pace was a predominant issue in the Wood. Bellamania had it all his own way, as he prefers, and Going Wild was not ready to show up. Going Wild hasn't been right, but he did out hustle Bellamania from outside in the Derby. Personally I don't believe its because Bellamania rated. Scrappy T was impeded by Bellamania right out of the gate in the Wood and had his saddle slip four marks into the race. I hammered Scrappy in the Withers, but it wasn't because I thought he needed the lead or ran his race in the Wood.

Any horse can look good having it all his own way. Sometimes thats on the lead, sometimes its from off a blistering pace.

> In any event, if you interpret the victory in terms of the
> margins, you wind up giving an inflated figure to the winner so
> you can assign figures that make sense to the rest of the
> field.

I agree with the foregoing, if you're basing projecting the final figure off another "need the lead" type who needs the front end or X's. Scrappy and Survivalist however are not that type of horse.


> Beyerguy suggested that the Wood figure was very inflated right
> after the race. I was less sure either way because of
> Survivalist's performance. However, I think it is at least
> worth considering the possibility that he has been right all
> along.

If Bellamania had run from off the pace and exploded late on a card with 3 two turn races there would be no issue. Theres not much of an issue now. We don't have to factor Bellamania from here in. Maybe the Travers, where he might be the bet if it looks like he gets a free running chance for the front.