Between the complications of extreme pace, rough trips, a track on which it certainly wasn't advantageous to be inside, and the few clinkers that often occur on Derby day by horses that then rebound, the race was a mess.

My take on the Preakness is that you should more or less throw out the Derby performance for virtually everyone that ran poorly, but give credit to anyone you believe ran a new top that day.

The analysis from there should just be adjusted for the fact that the race is 1/16 of a mile shorter (which could be slightly advantageous to a few horses that were more suspect at 10F) and for the fact that there is less quality speed, no pure rabbit, and there will certainly be a hightened sensitivity to pace by the jocks considering the fiasco in KY.

These factors will certainly help a few horses in Maryland that had little chance in KY going in.

In no special order.

IMO, despite an advantageous trip, Giacomo did improve a bit and run fairly well in the Derby. He had a great workout line coming into the race and was disadvantaged by the pace/trip in a few races in CA. So it was not shocking to me to see him run a little better. It was shocking to me to see ALL the faster horses either not run well or get caught up in the pace and allow him to win.

I believe Closing Argumemt also ran a career best - which was also not unexpected due to the interruptions to his training leading into the BG. He may have even been 1 race short of his best in the Derby. I didn't like him at 10F in a race that looked like it would develop the way it did, but he shocked me. He was fairly close to that fast pace very early before dropping back a bit and finishing OK. He ran a new speed figure top. It was a very good performance.

I will evaluate virtually everyone else out of the Derby using my opinions of their ability off prior races.

IMO, that makes horses like High Fly and Greely's Galaxy very tough.

I think 10F was not the optimum distance for Afleet Alex. So I think he will appreciate the slightly shorter distance. That makes him a contender (but a probable underlay).

High Limit will be helped dramatically if he can secure the lead or a stalking position off some cheap speed and the fractions are average. Pluse the shorter distance can't hurt.

I didn't think Noble Causway was as good as High Fly going into the Derby, (the FL Derby was a fast pace and he couldn't beat him). He didn't do much running in the Derby. So I'll have to pass unless the price is huge.

I have no idea what's going on with Sun King, but I'll also have to pass unless the price is huge despite the fact that he has shown flashes.

Scrappy T had a nice easy pace scenario in his last against weaker horses, but he has some ability.

I expect an honestly run Preakness from a pace perspective. There are enough speed/pressers in the race to keep the fractions honest. I can't imagine things getting out of hand again because everyone will be thinking about the Derby. It's actually probably more likely that everyone falls asleep and allows someone like High Limit (who few are taking seriously) to get the lead and dictate the fractions - which would be the optimum scenario for him (a complete reversal of the last race).

This race is all about price.

IMHO, it's a wide open Preakness.



Post Edited (05-19-05 11:35)