Re: ROTW - Preakness (578 Views)
Posted by:
jbelfior (IP Logged)
Date: May 19, 2005 12:12PM
From a pace perspective, CH is probably correct.
It should not be the type of pace that throws the numbers out of whack. That being said, some interpretation is still required.
SUN KING has achieved his better numbers at 1 1/16th or less. So far the longer he goes, the lower his number becomes. Yes he did run over a dead rail, but I doubt very much that he would have sustained his run even if he was on the better part of the track. This horse is and always was overrated and has never given any hints that he is capable of running Grade 1 numbers over a classic distance.
HIGH LIMIT-- Will obviously be a pace factor. Now it becomes a question of how much do you excuse his dead last performance due to the rail and his cuts.
This is probably HIGH FLY's race to lose. Inside speed, can track and pounce, and may be set to improve again. Will probably be overbet, however. Fair odds are 6-1, I'm thinking he may be 7/2 or 4-1.
The Derby was such a grueling race that I will toss AFLEET ALEX (who should be given a rest) and CLOSING ARGUMENT who ran the race of his life off of very little seasoning.
I'll take a stab that WILKO is set for a career best (I am concerned over the bleeding through the lasix) and I'll get nearly 15-1 to find out. Use with HIGH FLY and hope for the best.
Good Luck,
Joe B.