Re: ROTW - Preakness (443 Views)
Posted by:
albany (IP Logged)
Date: May 19, 2005 07:01PM
My approach to the Preakness is predicated upon two propositions:
Proposition 1 - A line should be drawn through the Derby since its results were predicated upon an atypical pace scenario, injuries to top contenders and rough trips for several entrants.
Proposition 2 - The general disadvantage for outside posts in the Preakness will be made worse in light of the running styles of many of the entrants. More precisely, the presence of so many speed horses and pace pressers will likely create a tightly packed herd as they enter the first turn. This will force outside speed horses to use energy to clear; others will have no alternative but to assume an extremely wide stalking position; and still others will be forced to pull further back than either their running styles or normal strategy would otherwise dictate.
The acceptance of the two above-stated propositions would lead to the exclusion of both Afleet Alex and Giacomo. Concomitantly, this approach would value inside horses who had good pre-Derby form. Accordingly, I will be boxing the following entrants:
High Fly
Noble Causeway
Greeley's Galaxy
P.S. Given my Derby analysis that was posted on this board, I will be including Wilko in my expanded tickets despite his outside post. Such a divergence from my current logic must be made to avoid the undue pain that would be caused should he win without me.
Post Edited (05-19-05 19:02)