Re: ROTW - Preakness (421 Views)
Posted by:
albany (IP Logged)
Date: May 20, 2005 08:34AM
Chuckles:
Closing Argument has been excluded from my top three because Proposition 1 requires a line to be drawn through his Derby performance and his pre-Derby form was sub-par. He has also drawn outside of my top picks. Closing Argument will, however, be included in my expanded tickets.
As to your second point, I believe that outside horses who are "close/stalk" types will be seriously disadvantaged since I envision the field to be deeply stacked (i.e., not strung out) going into the first turn. This will force the close/stalk outside horses to go wide or pull back and thereby lose position.
I am relatively unconcerned with outside speed even if they are able to clear. In my view, it will take too much energy to both clear the field from an outside post and be around at the finish.
As we both know from experience, I am including Wilko on my expanded tickets as a defensive play in light of my previous views. There is some dispute as to whether he bled in the Derby, but I think it is clear that he was somewhat impeded in mid-stretch. That was a bad point in the race to run into trouble since the closing fractions were slow. The argument that Wilko had a troubled trip or bled in the Derby is inferentially supported by the fact that he had beaten the winner and fourth place finisher in the SA Derby. In any event, I still think Wilko has a decent shot, but I acknowledge that he'll have to get very lucky from his post position.
Thanks for your input.