My illustration assumes Closing arguement ran closer to 3.2 than 1.2 (factoring bias)

If you give him full faith and credit for a 1.2 the thoropattern would say Closing Argument is a good bet to improve/pair

hossgnat wrote:

> Chuckles_the_Clown2 wrote:
>
> >
> > p.s. Hoss, whats your friend say. Does he have any stellar
> > insight this time or is he sticking with Giacomo.
> >
>
> Chuckles-
>
> He's sticking with him, and he's not one to form emotional
> attachments. He'd jump off in a minute if he saw something
> more attractive.
>
> FWIW, here are the somewhat humorous comments he sent me:
>
> I am very angry that I have been labled a "Hat Pin Annie" by
> the national press based on the events in Louisville 2 weeks
> ago. I guess if the columnists and talking heads never
> mentioned a horse, and it won, then it must have been a fluke.
> (I timed the Tivo of the NBC broadcast and 12 seconds were
> spent on Giacomo in the hour pre-race coverage).

Hoss this "12 second" rehashing comment seems to be evidence of "bonding" but its certainly easy to understand coarsing blood having picked a horse no one else called. I've never picked a 50-1 Derby winner and don't ever expect to.

> If Giacomo lost that race by a length, it would have been
> labled a bad trip, and he'd probably be a 4-1 second choice,
> instead of a 6-1 fourth choice as winner of the Derby.

This little comment here is also indicating some undue attachment

> I simply state that this is an improving horse, at the top of a
> form cycle

He was on top of it Form Cycle for the Derby, granted.

> in capable hands, who has the right to continue
> moving forward

TGraph makes him 22% to Top 51% to top or pair

> after a horrid trip (8w lane, all out) in the
> Derby. My suspicion is that if he gets a clear run, there is
> another gear.

He's a grinder that caught a lot of breaks. Another Wide ride like that and sayonara for the exotics. Can't see it, but 6-1 or better on a Derby winner might appear enticing.



Post Edited (05-21-05 11:43)