albany wrote:

> Proposition 1 - A line should be drawn through the Derby since
> its results were predicated upon an atypical pace scenario,
> injuries to top contenders and rough trips for several
> entrants.

Hard to out factor Closing Argument on the above though

> Proposition 2 - The general disadvantage for outside posts in
> the Preakness will be made worse in light of the running styles
> of many of the entrants. More precisely, the presence of so
> many speed horses and pace pressers will likely create a
> tightly packed herd as they enter the first turn. This will
> force outside speed horses to use energy to clear; others will
> have no alternative but to assume an extremely wide stalking
> position; and still others will be forced to pull further back
> than either their running styles or normal strategy would
> otherwise dictate.

Ok, sounds reasonable

> The acceptance of the two above-stated propositions would lead
> to the exclusion of both Afleet Alex and Giacomo.

This is where it departs from reasonable. Assuming your tossing Giacomo on proposition one, why should two Close/Stalk types be disadvantaged by Speed/Pressing types?

> Concomitantly, this approach would value inside horses who had
> good pre-Derby form. Accordingly, I will be boxing the
> following entrants:
>
> High Fly
> Noble Causeway
> Greeley's Galaxy

Even though the "clearing speed" is further outside?


> P.S. Given my Derby analysis that was posted on this board, I
> will be including Wilko in my expanded tickets despite his
> outside post. Such a divergence from my current logic must be
> made to avoid the undue pain that would be caused should he win
> without me.

Wilko hasn't developed a quarter point. He didn't bleed last and he showed nothing at any point.

spa wrote:

> As I line up the chairs on the deck of the Titanic, only one
> horse comes to mind...Afleet Alex will win the race. If you
> hate your money bet against him. The derby trip was much worse
> than reported.

Alex bounced, but he also had a subtlely bad trip. I'm worried about him from a form perspective only.

mikemd wrote:

> i'm taking a big stand against afleet alex. i do have him as
> my most likely winner, but nowhere near 5/2. he's 1/5 over a
> mile. terrible post. if he wins at 5/2-3/1, then i'll just
> give congrats to spa for touting him since the derby.

For races over a mile hes also (5) 1-2-1 with a lung infection when he missed the board and suddenly stopped at the aerobic mark of the Rebel. I've tried to warn folks about that distance thing. You can't say I haven't tried. He could lose and miss the money, but its gonna be on form if he does.

classhandicapper wrote:

> If GW wants the lead I'd let him have it, sit just off him, let
> him collapse on his own and then take over. If GW doesn't break
> well or doesn't get aggressive I'd go.

Probably the instructions from Frankel

> I felt much differently about it when Spanish Chestnut was in
> the race specifically to set a fast pace and Bellamy Road was
> another high quality speed in the mix. In a race like that,
> there was so much darn speed and an even bigger field trying to
> get and maintain position. I couldn't see any way the pace
> wasn't hot.

Bellamania wasn't even that close to the pace. The reason was he couldn't catch it.

> Probably a good way to look at the Preakness pace is to assume
> it will either be mildly fast or neutral and focus on horses
> that can deal with either of those. I can't see them crawling
> and I can't see another suicide mission.

Agreed

classhandicapper wrote:

> I think so because a few of the speeds are not one dimensional.
> They can sit just off it. The other reason is that I've seen
> this pattern of pace reversal before. Everyone that has a horse
> than can sit just off will be under instructions to not be
> suicidal.

High Limit with blinkers inside of Going Wild is sent aggressively for the lead. If he can get the jump and free wheel to the first turn and only hear Going Wild he has a chance to be around for a long, long time. Going Wild WANTS the lead. Lukas has to figure "put him on the lead". Theres you're pace scenario. Scrappy, High Fly and Galloping Grocer will rate off that wing ding. A bad break for one of the two, the other inherits the wind. Bailey will NOT use High Fly early unless the one hole looks golden by race time.

beyerguy wrote:

> Most places Wilko wouldn't even be allowed to race, I think
> I'll pass. Why is he allowed to race in only two weeks after
> bleeding through Lasix, anyway?

The report was "traces of blood" and a fair amount of track dirt swallowed. The "bleeding" was very mininal and the trainer did state he didn't want to mislead anyone. Wilko is the proverbial grinder and the problem is he's still a small horse and others have become explosive and to this point he has not.

jbelfior wrote:

>
> SUN KING has achieved his better numbers at 1 1/16th or less.
> So far the longer he goes, the lower his number becomes. Yes he
> did run over a dead rail, but I doubt very much that he would
> have sustained his run even if he was on the better part of the
> track. This horse is and always was overrated and has never
> given any hints that he is capable of running Grade 1 numbers
> over a classic distance.

He hasn't shown a solid number at two turns. It could be circumstances but you're into the fifth two turn race now. Lots of horses were looking good on Hallandale's one turn miles. Prado off pretty much seals the deal, regardless of whether Zito wouldn't let him have Noble Causeway.

> HIGH LIMIT-- Will obviously be a pace factor. Now it becomes a
> question of how much do you excuse his dead last performance
> due to the rail and his cuts.

Don't forget Mr. Maryland.

> This is probably HIGH FLY's race to lose. Inside speed, can
> track and pounce, and may be set to improve again. Will
> probably be overbet, however. Fair odds are 6-1, I'm thinking
> he may be 7/2 or 4-1.

Should be well poised behind High Limit and Going wild.

>
> The Derby was such a grueling race that I will toss AFLEET ALEX
> (who should be given a rest) and CLOSING ARGUMENT who ran the
> race of his life off of very little seasoning.

Not a wise move.

> I'll take a stab that WILKO is set for a career best (I am
> concerned over the bleeding through the lasix) and I'll get
> nearly 15-1 to find out.

That won't be enough