The Derby is coming up as a very competitive race with 4 or 5 horses with faster numbers but another 6 or 7 horses that will be competitive and could win if they move up 1 or 2 points.

FWIW Street Sense has to be the key based on overall pattern -- never running a bad race -- improving line this year and the strength of his numbers. Throw in the "Nafzger knows how to peak a horse for big races" angle and he is the horse most likely to win.

AGS is probably the only other horse who deserves to be below 10:1 in the betting. His line is not as strong but his top is very competitive, his line is nice, and he had a small bounce in last from which he could return to or break through his top.

Scat Daddy has done nothing wrong and is as fast as anybody else. I can't get over the Johannesburg pedigree though. He is more likely than not to bounce off his FL Derby top but at likely 10-12:1 odds will be priced about right.

CQ is a must toss for me. Suspect breeding and 8-week layoff after significant new top makes him an easy one to leave out. I do not know how his pattern looks on TG but it's a pretty ugly top on Ragozin. He could always win but anything under 20:1 is a big underlay in my view.

Curlin is another horse that I will be leaving off the vast majority if not all of my tickets. He is almost as fast as SS, AGS, SD, and a couple others but I do not like the pair up top coupled with shorter rest than he had before his last race. Add the seasoning angle and short odds and it's another easy decision. If he wins, more power to him but he'll be no value.

I do not have a good read on Nobiz. He has run pretty fast every time but his best number both years has been in his first start. I can't toss him but 15:1 seems about right.

Great Hunter has never done anything wrong but is about two points slower than the top contenders. He is another 15:1 or so horse.

Same with Hard Spun -- improving line, slightly slow but plenty of spacing for his races.

After these, there are several marginal horses like Dominican, Zanjero, Cowtown Cat and Teuflesburg who could always surprise but you'll need big odds on them.

The SA Derby horses are all easy tosses for me.

I think there are a couple of ways that I am thinking about playing the race -- 1) Key Street Sense to win and in exotics. 2) Toss the overbet horses Curlin and CQ and the 6-8 that are just too slow and throw a blanket over 10 or so horses hoping for a couple of prices to get into the Tri or Super. I'll probably do both.