Having viewed the same data,and Thorographs on major contenders here is how I see it. I use breeding data #s from Mike Veitch on OTB tv and it differers from your's yielding a different opinion:

Street Sense-Both have a regression from the Breeders Cup race. Thorograph has him slightly regressing in the Blue Grass from Tampa Bay, Rags has him with a minimal improvement, but not near the Breeder's Cup #. Breeding says he won't make 1 1/4. Between his breeding and his 3yo #s not being among the best in here, I can't see him winning.

Any Given Saturday-His top is only competitive. I'm smelling an 0-2-X pattern. I'm sensing regression, not progress. No matter what excuse they want to use, he tired going 1 1/8 and Johnny V went to Quay.

Scat Daddy: His breeding # is weak. I agree with your analysis. He has a much better foundation on Thorographs than Rags. Thorograph readers may be less inclined to expect a bounce.

Circular Quay: Similar pattern on both. Big 3yo jump from final 2yo #. But-we don't have a real 3yo 1st race # due to Slew's Tizzy dumping his jockey right in front of him. So coming off his 2yo tops, which are right there with all the others except SS's monster BC (which SS has not come close to duplicating) he breaks through as a 3yo in his only measurable race has 8 weeks off and is working great. The breeding # says he will run all day, I see a pairup at least and I don't know if we've even hit this horses's peak yet. My main concern is a slow enough pace to get him jammed up making his move. I'll be playing him as 1 of my 2 major plays. However, based on what the rest he needed after La, he's a total toss in the Preakness if he runs well in Ky.

Curlin: Rags, slower than some of the other contenders, Thorograph, 2nd fastest 3yo race. I agree in general with you in terms of playing him, but he scares the heck out of me.

Nobiz Like Showbiz-This is one horse that is a different read on each product. On Thorograph, he looks like a horse who is slower than the main contenders and is not progressing, even though his 2yo #s are good enough to compete with all but SS's BC. An optomist might see this as a delayed explosion, waiting to happen. A pessimist would say he's too slow with no progress and not worth playing. As you've stated, Rags #s show good first race & regression. A pessimist would say he runs best only off long layoffs or he's best at 1 mile and regresses as the distance gets longer. An optomist would take a different view: his two tops in his 1st races show he's right there with the fastest horses, he regressed in his 2nd start of the year, and his 3rd race of year #s are irrelevant because he easily won the Remsen and did not need to run any faster since he was so much in control of the race; and his Wood was a winning effort when the goal was just keeping him fit for the Derby. I'm taking the optomist view-call it either the delayed explosion on TG or a slight move forward from his top on R, and he's my other major play. I believe this horse is set to peak on 5/5 by a trainer who also knows how to peak a horse for big races, hasn't even scratched his best #s and unlike SS, has the breeding #s to easily handle 1 1/4.

I agree on Great Hunter noting that on Thorographs he shows a regression from his 2yo top and I don't believe he has a strong enough foundation to move forward.

Hard Spun-His #s are not as competitive as others, his training up to the race has been suspect, and I don't think he's ever beaten a horse anywhere near the class of the top horses here. I'm not putting a dime on him.

The only other horse I can see winning is Cowtown Cat, but he'll have to improve on both sheets. I think Zanjero can drop into the exotics but is too slow to win. Dominican is a tough read due to polytrack to dirt, wouldn't be a total shock if he ran ok, win would shock me.

I'm looking at Doubles, p3s with Nobiz Like Showbiz & Circular Quay as my plays. Saving with tris and supers with Cowtown Cat, Curlin, Street Sense, Zanjero, Great Hunter and Any Given Saturday(in case he doesn't 0-2-X). The horse I want nothing to do with is Hard Spun, even though he's bred to run all day.