toppled Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Having viewed the same data,and Thorographs on
> major contenders here is how I see it. I use
> breeding data #s from Mike Veitch on OTB tv and it
> differers from your's yielding a different
> opinion:
>
> Street Sense-Both have a regression from the
> Breeders Cup race. Thorograph has him slightly
> regressing in the Blue Grass from Tampa Bay, Rags
> has him with a minimal improvement, but not near
> the Breeder's Cup #. Breeding says he won't make
> 1 1/4. Between his breeding and his 3yo #s not
> being among the best in here, I can't see him
> winning.

What about his Breeding "Says" "He wont get a mile and a quarter"? The fact his sire won the Dubai World Cup and another race at 10 poles? The fact that his sire loved Churchill Downs? The fact that his sire side Pedigree is loaded with Stamina Turf influence? The fact that Ribot and Native Dancer influence his Female side and that he has a broodmare sire that has sired 5 GSW this year? Including Dominican and Bandini two years ago. Then you go on to say Circular Quay is loaded with Distance pedigree with a Belong to Me female side? Are you serious or wishing and hoping? Wouldn't it be a lot more honest to say, I'm tossing this horse because you never know and pool money will be riding on him? I'm hoping his 2 3YO efforts are representative of his true form?

> Any Given Saturday-His top is only competitive.
> I'm smelling an 0-2-X pattern. I'm sensing
> regression, not progress. No matter what excuse
> they want to use, he tired going 1 1/8 and Johnny
> V went to Quay.

Tend to think AGS is gonna finish way up the track.

> Scat Daddy: His breeding # is weak. I agree with
> your analysis. He has a much better foundation on
> Thorographs than Rags. Thorograph readers may be
> less inclined to expect a bounce.

The really interesting head to head is going to be between Scat and Nobiz. I know Tagg was shocked he lost the Fountain of Youth. Since then Nobiz has been trained to battle. But I'm not so sure you can battle a couple of blurs though.

> Circular Quay: Similar pattern on both. Big 3yo
> jump from final 2yo #. But-we don't have a real
> 3yo 1st race # due to Slew's Tizzy dumping his
> jockey right in front of him. So coming off his
> 2yo tops, which are right there with all the
> others except SS's monster BC (which SS has not
> come close to duplicating) he breaks through as a
> 3yo in his only measurable race has 8 weeks off
> and is working great. The breeding # says he will
> run all day, I see a pairup at least and I don't
> know if we've even hit this horses's peak yet. My
> main concern is a slow enough pace to get him
> jammed up making his move. I'll be playing him as
> 1 of my 2 major plays. However, based on what the
> rest he needed after La, he's a total toss in the
> Preakness if he runs well in Ky.

At least he's got a number to hope in. Recent trend is last race Prep toppers have not faired well in the Derby.

> Curlin: Rags, slower than some of the other
> contenders, Thorograph, 2nd fastest 3yo race. I
> agree in general with you in terms of playing him,
> but he scares the heck out of me.

He should.


>
> Nobiz Like Showbiz-This is one horse that is a
> different read on each product. On Thorograph, he
> looks like a horse who is slower than the main
> contenders and is not progressing, even though his
> 2yo #s are good enough to compete with all but
> SS's BC. An optomist might see this as a delayed
> explosion, waiting to happen. A pessimist would
> say he's too slow with no progress and not worth
> playing. As you've stated, Rags #s show good
> first race & regression. A pessimist would say he
> runs best only off long layoffs or he's best at 1
> mile and regresses as the distance gets longer.
> An optomist would take a different view: his two
> tops in his 1st races show he's right there with
> the fastest horses, he regressed in his 2nd start
> of the year, and his 3rd race of year #s are
> irrelevant because he easily won the Remsen and
> did not need to run any faster since he was so
> much in control of the race; and his Wood was a
> winning effort when the goal was just keeping him
> fit for the Derby. I'm taking the optomist
> view-call it either the delayed explosion on TG or
> a slight move forward from his top on R, and he's
> my other major play. I believe this horse is set
> to peak on 5/5 by a trainer who also knows how to
> peak a horse for big races, hasn't even scratched
> his best #s and unlike SS, has the breeding #s to
> easily handle 1 1/4.

Having shown no real interest in the last 1/8 in 9 pole events and being out of a Storm Cat mare, why is the 10 marks no problem for Nobiz and an issue for Street Sense? Ok, he likes Aqueduct, but has he finished like a Derby horse and can he run a close stalking race with his blinkers and have the slightest ability to hold off whats coming at him the last 3 poles? Maybe he gets away with easier fractions and improves enough to do it. His Trainer is the real McCoy.

>
> I agree on Great Hunter noting that on Thorographs
> he shows a regression from his 2yo top and I don't
> believe he has a strong enough foundation to move
> forward.

If the Bluegrass was a fair bill, you have to factor this horse.

> Hard Spun-His #s are not as competitive as others,
> his training up to the race has been suspect, and
> I don't think he's ever beaten a horse anywhere
> near the class of the top horses here. I'm not
> putting a dime on him.

You threw one out, congratulations. But are you sure you picked the right one to toss?

>
> The only other horse I can see winning is Cowtown
> Cat, but he'll have to improve on both sheets. I
> think Zanjero can drop into the exotics but is too
> slow to win. Dominican is a tough read due to
> polytrack to dirt, wouldn't be a total shock if he
> ran ok, win would shock me.
>
> I'm looking at Doubles, p3s with Nobiz Like
> Showbiz & Circular Quay as my plays. Saving with
> tris and supers with Cowtown Cat, Curlin, Street
> Sense, Zanjero, Great Hunter and Any Given
> Saturday(in case he doesn't 0-2-X). The horse I
> want nothing to do with is Hard Spun, even though
> he's bred to run all day.

You're betting like Len Friedman...focus some and come back when you're really down to your best 1 or 2. You don't cover the field in the Derby.