Re: Wed Sar 3rd - interesting jockey change (922 Views)
Posted by:
Alydar in California (IP Logged)
Date: August 23, 2002 07:12PM
David Patent wrote: "Now, care to answer my original question?"
I look at ROI stats, upgrade horses that have good riders, and downgrade horses that have bad riders. I can't quantify how I handle it, and I don't split hairs.
"1) Information and how it is factored into markets (e.g., GE is a great company, but should I buy the stock?)."
How it is factored into the market is meaningless. You're double counting, dude. The parts matter early. In the endgame, what matters is their sum versus the price. And it matters not a whit that some people will add incorrectly early in the game. What matters is the sum they come up with.
"2) Hot streaks and whether you can predict when they will begin and when they will end -- on this point, an interesting study was done on so-called 'hot shooters' in the NBA and whether the fact that a player had made his previous shot bore any relationship to his shooting percentage on the following shot -- btw, there was no correlation."
Don't go down this road unless you mean business, David. Bluffing is dangerous. I read Stephen Jay Gould's account of the study. The 76ers, right? Gould also argues that Joe DiMaggio's hitting streak is the most incredible record. For our purposes, this argument is unimportant. I'm talking about established competence, not a brief hot streak.
"3) The past as prologue."
Throw away your sheets.
") So-called random factors that we might say are random only because we don't know the underlying causes."
This applies beautifully to your opinion that speed biases don't exist. If you can't figure out why, pretend that it doesn't exist. This is hubris, I tell you.
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