re: Jockey Switches, ROI's etc. (851 Views)
Posted by:
Alydar in California (IP Logged)
Date: August 27, 2002 11:18PM
Catalin wrote: "To me, R.O.I. as it is being employed here is a pretty meaningless concept in and of itself. It is a compound statistic dependent upon how the crowd bets a race (in addition to the win %). If you employ an odds line for each race you're capturing the effect of the crowd by passing any horse below your estimate of fair value."
As I have written several times, I'm interested in ROI to the extent that it tells us something about jockey competence. I could not care less how the crowd figures to bet a particular jockey in today's race. See my 8-24 "David Patent" post (it is about a foot above me as I write), and see my other posts on this subject, the ones that haven't been deleted, that is.
"To know that a particular jockey has a positive ROI in a given situation is only useful if you think that your estimate of fair value in that situation is no better than the public's, in which case you are really just second guessing the probablity estimates you've previously assigned to the race. I hope that made sense."
Not if, like me, you use ROI for nothing but what it can tell you about jockey competence. Let's say you have done all your handicapping (jockeys aside) and estimated the chances that each horse would run a particular figure. You have two horses at 2-1 on your line. Then you see that over a big sample, one rider has an ROI of 1.90 and the other has an ROI of 1.10. I consider this evidence that the first rider is more competent. Again, I could not care less about what ROI tells us about the crowd's tendency to bet a certain rider in today's race. That would amount to double counting. I discussed this at great length a foot above.
"Re final fraction adjustments to turf figures, the answer is no I do not. Nothing has changed in my mind. I just have not found a satisfcatory way to do it. I think I might have the math worked out, something along the lines of a sustained pace figure adjusted for trips and weight. The problem is that it's too time consuming to do it for every race (or at least the last ten races)on a horses sheet, something you need to do to discern the pattern."
Here is where I wanted to go with this: A horse's late speed is accounted for in his figure. How does a figure cheat a horse who closes fast? I know how you can answer that from a Sartin angle, but I think it would be immensely complicated to combine this with what you're doing now. And the temporary rails are a huge pain in the ass.
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