re: Jockey Switches, ROI's etc. (986 Views)
Posted by:
Catalin (IP Logged)
Date: August 28, 2002 12:02AM
Alydar wrote "Then you see that over a big sample, one rider has an ROI of 1.90 and the other has an ROI of 1.10. I consider this evidence that the first rider is more competent."
Or that the second rider is dramatically overbet. There's almost no way to comb the errors from that stat. I think two more useful stats would be something like
A) How frequently a rider gets a horse to run it's effective top/2 pts from its top/4 pts from its top etc. and
B)Average ground loss by jockey by post by running style relative to a standard you set. (e.g. Horses that show an "Early" running style breaking from post 5 loss on average 2.10 paths. How many paths does a Jerry Bailey "Early" lose from post 5?)
I realize this is ridiculously cumbersome, I'm just trying to make a point. I do think though that those stats if available would give you a better handle on who is a good rider (coaxes a top effort more frequently / loses less than expected amount of ground) from who is not (doesn't often get horses to run their best / loses more ground than PP and running style should dictate). Chris has some really good ideas on how to measure the effectiveness of jockeys (and trainers even more so) using things other than ROI.
Alydar wrote "Here is where I wanted to go with this: A horse's late speed is accounted for in his figure. How does a figure cheat a horse who closes fast? I know how you can answer that from a Sartin angle, but I think it would be immensely complicated to combine this with what you're doing now. And the temporary rails are a huge pain in the ass."
What I'm talking about doing is in effect recalculating a figure where some % of the figure is derived from early pace, and some from late speed where the mix is closer to 50/50 even though the last fraction might only account for 30% of the final time. Something along the lines of weight/ground adjusted sustained pace numbers expressed in sheet format. I agree that it is immensely difficult to combine pace, whether its dirt early pace or grass late pace with what we are using now. And the rails are a pain in the ass to deal with but since few people make such turf figures they would still have value even if they weren't as accurate as final time numbers.
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