re: Jockey Switches, ROI's etc. (985 Views)
Posted by:
derby1592 (IP Logged)
Date: August 28, 2002 03:18AM
Catalin said
"I think a lot of what's been posted in this string misses the point. What is it exactly that we are trying to "predict"? For all those that respond "the winner", do not pass go, do not collect $200.
What we are really trying to forecast (at least for all those that profess to be sheet handicappers) is the probability that a horse will run a given number, how his trip (i.e ground loss, pace, etc.) will factor into that number and what is the likelihood that a given # will translate into a 1st place finish, 2nd place finish, etc. based upon the expected figures and the trips of his competitors. When we upgrade a horse based upon a trainer switch to Baffert or Frankel, or a jockey switch to Prado or Velasquez all we are really saying is that the horse is MORE likely to run his "good number" (trainer) and LESS likely to waste energy (ground loss, pace duels, etc.) doing it (jockey), and that these factors (increased % of good numbers / less wasted energy) translate into an increased likelihood of a win."
Well stated.
Chris
Wed Sar 3rd - interesting jockey change (1522 Views)
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re: Jockey Switches, ROI's etc. (1030 Views)
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re: Jockey Switches, ROI's etc. (977 Views)
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re: Jockey Switches, ROI's etc. (987 Views)
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re: Jockey Switches, ROI's etc. (902 Views)
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re: Jockey Switches, ROI's etc. (985 Views)
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re: Jockey Switches, ROI's etc. (985 Views) |
derby1592 |
08/28/2002 03:18AM |
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Re: Wed Sar 3rd - interesting jockey change (1105 Views)
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Michael D. |
08/14/2002 08:18PM |