re: Jockey Switches, ROI's etc. (984 Views)
Posted by:
Alydar in California (IP Logged)
Date: August 28, 2002 09:12AM
Catalin wrote: "Or that the second rider is dramatically overbet."
As I wrote earlier, that is why popularity and lack of same should be taken into consideration. (I believe this affects relatively few riders in a serious way, and I believe you believe the same.) That is also why I wrote "evidence" instead of "proof."
"There's almost no way to comb the errors from that stat."
It is desirable but not imperative to comb all the errors out of the stat. Le mieux est l'ennemi du bien. But why not drain any jockey adjustments out of your personal line, substitute your line for the crowd's line, and calculate your own ROI? Call it a ROME (return on my investment), but don't expect to build it in a day.
"A) How frequently a rider gets a horse to run it's effective top/2 pts from its top/4 pts from its top etc. and
B)Average ground loss by jockey by post by running style relative to a standard you set. (e.g. Horses that show an "Early" running style breaking from post 5 loss on average 2.10 paths. How many paths does a Jerry Bailey "Early" lose from post 5?)"
In general, I am partial to this sort of thing. In specific, I think there are good things about this, and, in specific, I think Chris is brilliant. But please remember that riders try to WIN the race, or at least ought to be trying to win. And good riders are on good horses, horses who often OUGHT to be taken outside. The biggest problem with this sort of thing is that the trees obscure your view of the forest. Think of a method for judging pitchers that fails to give credit to pitchers who don't allow runners to cross home plate. In other words, Catalin, cross these ideas with ROI.
"What I'm talking about doing is in effect recalculating a figure where some % of the figure is derived from early pace, and some from late speed where the mix is closer to 50/50 even though the last fraction might only account for 30% of the final time. Something along the lines of weight/ground adjusted sustained pace numbers expressed in sheet format. I agree that it is immensely difficult to combine pace, whether its dirt early pace or grass late pace with what we are using now. And the rails are a pain in the ass to deal with but since few people make such turf figures they would still have value even if they weren't as accurate as final time numbers."
Please trust me. I was already extremely familiar with how this worked, but you did not answer my question.
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