re: Jockey Switches, ROI's etc. (1058 Views)
Posted by:
Alydar in California (IP Logged)
Date: August 28, 2002 06:52AM
Michael D. writes: "Somebody please explain this 'double counting' argument for me."
When you place a bet, you're purchasing the horse and the rider, among others. Let's say a rider has an incredible ROI, 2.40. He (not to mention the trainers to whom he is linked) has been underrated in aggregate, as your enemy Keynes might have put it, but this doesn't mean that all of his horses were overlays. Some were surely underlays. They had terrible patterns, etc. The egotistical, comprehensive handicapping favored by Catalin, Chris, and me would lead us, or me, at least, to say: "Screw Bailey's ROI (except to the extent, if any, that it tells us something about his competence). ROI is a HINT about how the crowd will rate one factor, Bailey's ability, but hints are eclipsed by facts (the tote board), and we will have the facts soon enough. And since we try to take every factor into consideration, we will be able to locate those instances where this underrated rider is on a horse that is being overrated so much that the package is an underlay."
In short, to count the hint (ROI) when you're going to be counting the fact (tote odds) is to double count.
You go about things differently, Michael, but what you do is perfectly logical. In fact, one could be so bold as to say that you may still call yourself a sheet handicapper.
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