re: Jockey Switches, ROI's etc. (952 Views)
Posted by:
Catalin (IP Logged)
Date: August 27, 2002 07:10PM
Alydar:
To me, R.O.I. as it is being employed here is a pretty meaningless concept in and of itself. It is a compound statistic dependent upon how the crowd bets a race (in addition to the win %). If you employ an odds line for each race you're capturing the effect of the crowd by passing any horse below your estimate of fair value.
To know that a particular jockey has a positive ROI in a given situation is only useful if you think that your estimate of fair value in that situation is no better than the public's, in which case you are really just second guessing the probablity estimates you've previously assigned to the race. I hope that made sense.
Re final fraction adjustments to turf figures, the answer is no I do not. Nothing has changed in my mind. I just have not found a satisfcatory way to do it. I think I might have the math worked out, something along the lines of a sustained pace figure adjusted for trips and weight. The problem is that it's too time consuming to do it for every race (or at least the last ten races)on a horses sheet, something you need to do to discern the pattern.
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