Ok, I used the [b]Difference between their Derby fig and their Previous Route Best[/b] AND [b]their Dosage[/b]. I broke it down by two groups: Dosages < 3 (which is what that Romans guy claims means they are more likely to be routers, vs Dosages >= 3 (more likely to be sprinter types.

For Dosage <3 (sample size 171)
Tops: 9%
Pair: 21%
Off: 21 %
X: 49%

For Dosage >=3 (sample size 127)
Tops: 11%
Pair: 24%
Off: 19%
X: 46%

I just used a couple of simple COUNTIF statements to breakout the numbers from the columns in excel. Someone maybe can check my numbers to ensure I didn't screw up?

Less than 3 might seem a random dividing point to pick but (apparently) by definition, that is the dividing line for routers and sprinters, so, that's what used. The fact that VG, BODI, POINT GIVEN, TAKE CHARGE INDY, ORB all fall into the sprinter category seems...insane?...but what are you gonna do.

Anyway, based on this quick look at it, 30% of the horses supposedly predisposed to ROUTE Pair or Top, vs 35% of the horses supposedly predisposed to sprint. In other words using dosage to divide them, the sprinters actually did better...which does not exactly give one great hope that this (dosage index) is a great way to identify horses who will perform better than average at 10f in the derby.