Last night the Mrs. reveiewed the sheets and now all that's left for me is the draw. I hate to be accused of not taking a pre-race position, so I'll go early. With a field this big, I've made a few categories.

Contenders/value

Pollard's Vision - In my first look through the sheets, this was one of three that jumped out at me. The Mrs. likes him too. Has tactical speed and a jockey with a brain. Figure you have to be able to run under a two to get on the board here, so he fits big time with a pair saving some ground. Yes he has distance questions, but he only has to beat THESE HORSES, and though I am no pedigree expert, few of look like slam dunks at ten furlongs.

Imperialism - Another of the first three that I liked, but the Mrs. doesn't see it, so I'm on the fence a little. Will probably need a new top, and in my observation, not too many horses do this in the Derby. I think Desormeaux is an upgrade. I was a little taken aback by what I read about his first workout at Churchill.

Quinton's Gold Rush - This was our biggest divergence. The Mrs. liked this horse and I didn't. On second thought, why can't he pair up? Will be viewed negatively after Bailey's defection, and at 25-1 or better, how can you leave him out? Plus if he wins and my wife cashes and I don't I would kill myself, based on the fact that his sheet says he can hit the board. Should be able to save some ground -- the draw will be HUGE for this horse. Others have commented that he didn't beat anybody last out, but so what? He's fast enough and can save some ground.

Contenders/no value

Cliff's Edge - obviously fast enough to win and likes the track. The negatives are that he's a bounce candidate and he needs a trip big time (others have commented on Sellers). Even with a slight bounce he can win. Headache, and the draw probably won't solve it. There seems to be some possibility that this race will collapse, and that would obviously help his chances. Still, at 4-1 or so I would probably throw him out except for some tri/super tickets so he doesn't screw me sucking up third with bombs in the other spots.

Tapit - I've gotten off him a bit, given some of the commentary here. Also, why take a short price on a horse that's slower than many others? Again, most horses are not going to make a new top in the Derby. Needs a trip and I can hear the "he just didn't like the track" excuse already. Still, if he went up to 10-1 or so and drew decently he would fall in the headache category big time.

In A League Of His Own

Lion Heart - seems to be more of a pace question, but how many of these are going to pass him in the last quarter? He can back up a little, save ground and still win. The third one that jumped out at me (with IMPY and ONE-EYE) and the Mrs. likes him too.

Headaches That May Be Resolved Shortly

Minister Eric, Eddington, Master David, Pro Prado and Songofthesword.

Eddington looks the best of these if he gets in. He can pair last, looks like he could get the distance and would probably have decent stalking position. Pro Prado will be a huge price, but I'm concerned that he may back up off three big races and he's another that could run a big number and lose anyway. Still at 30-1 he's a HEADACHE and I would have to use him (lightly in exotics!). I'm leaning more towards throwing the others out.

So the unqualified positives (given the likely odds and consensus between me and the Mrs.) are Pollard's Vision, Lion Heart and Quinton's Gold Rush (!). Imperialism looks like the most likely one to improve, should get a favorable pace scenario and will be value as well (although I'm on my own here).

Good luck to all! HP