Re: Early Derby Analysis II (480 Views)
Posted by:
HP (IP Logged)
Date: April 28, 2004 11:12AM
Regarding Pro Prado, I've never seen a three year old run FOUR big ones in a row (although I've gotten burned plenty by 3yos that have run that THIRD big one). Big price, big headache.
Thunder Gulch just had a super pattern coming into the Derby. A pair of threes, a two point regression... At 25-1 it was almost too good to be true, especially considering that I think the only horse that had done better than those threes going in was Talkin' Man, who figured to back up big time off an isolated top. In retrospect it was probably the best bet I've ever seen.
As for Sea Hero, Michael is right, but if you look at the "Past Derby Winners" file that TG usually includes with the later versions of the Derby sheets, I think he was just a fluke who liked the slop when the other didn't.
The interesting thing about Sea Hero is that he is also a horse that won the Derby with a new top. That used to happen a lot more, and has DEFINITELY been happening less over the past few (five) years... HP