and was too chicken to bet the Santa Anita Derby or the Bluegrass...lol

The Cliff’s Edge – Last race makes him a large factor. It’s a big field, but traditionally his pace style is one that suits the Derby. He’s nimble, he closes, he likes the track. (Note the last work) There was no way for the “average” handicapper to select him as early as TGJB did. When he went the Sammy Davis route thought he was the third stringer. If the Keeneland strip was legit this marginally bred horse for distance appears to have the best close. (Still evaluating that) It seems the distance issue is behind him.

Action this Day – The most positive thing to say about him is that he worked well last. It sounded like he finished up on even terms with his workmate (Halfbridled) Though she carried 30 more pounds of jockey.

Friend’s Lake – The time of the Florida Derby wasn’t great. The horses that came out of it have done well but have improved to do so. This horse obviously has talent but he’s also got some issues. He’s a horse that’s hard to bad mouth but hard to like. His work plans didn’t go well in the goo and he liked the “off” track he had previously run on.

Smarty Jones - Changed leads again late in the Ark and Borrego ate into his lead. Working well.

Tapit – Thought he was done in the wood on erratic behavior. Not 100% fit last and got talked into giving him a pass and then realized the erratic behavior was what actually occurred. Now the logical course is to rule him out on the bearing in, but the chaos of this year may have him putting that goofy stretch run behind him. Still, he closed and had the best energy late despite all the bearing in and the restraint of the jockey and the trainer is renowned for acumen with injured horses. How do you factor that?

Castledale – Bred to run a long time and lost whip last. Streaky hot trainer.

Limehouse –Still left with the impression he’s no better than Swingforthefences and that one probably wouldn’t be running here even if he qualified on graded earnings. Santos will probably wrangle him back, but in this field his best chance might be to scoot, don’t count on it. If TCE and Lion are as good as that last race he may have long odds exotics potential. If Santos rides you know he should be riding with confidence knowing he’s gotten it done before. Still, can’t help but think he’s not really a 10 mark horse.

Lion Heart – Extremely dangerous in anticipation of the likely pace scenario. Any improvement in his form in consideration of that scenario and the race could set up for him. The key is early pressure. TCE ran him down last, but it wasn’t easy. (The Curse Clown did put the whammy on this horse.)

Read the Footnotes – To my reckoning this horse may have run the fastest figure in the race. Still he’s being asked to run a huge race without much foundation. That said he’s won some very good races. The issue combines a poorish last race, a layoff and the question of 10 marks in 3yr old company. He could do it…it’s a question of probability.

Wimbledon – Bob Baffert, The Louisiana Derby was a big race and this horse dominated it. He didn’t look nearly as good in the Santa Anita Derby and may have bounced or not been primed for that one or he may have run into better horses, but he is working very well at Churchill and Bad Bob is pleased. He may prefer “Eastern” type tracks. Guess we’ll see. Baffert has been pleased before with works at Churchill and gotten his hat handed to him, but this horse could obviously screw up a lot of tickets. Major Migraine.

Pollard’s Vision – Last was huge. Not only in number but in appearance. He did come home in an extrapolated 26 seconds, but the track was not glib. Has tactical speed and may give Lion Heart something to think about. Picking up lots of weight from the Illinois Derby, but there was another Illinois Derby winner to do that not long ago.

Imperialism – Beat Hosco Sprinting, Beat Lion Heart at two turns. Was right there at the end of the Santa Anita Derby. How one factors his trouble in that race may determine how one evaluates his odds here. He’s got a dosage of 3.0, (Heck they all do now), but he’s given the appearance of being at the extreme of his distance ability. Either that or regardless of figures he’s run into tough horses. Saturday the tough ones he’s faced will be Lionheart, Castledale and Quinton’s Gold Rush.

Mininster Eric – Believe he is the more positive of Mandella’s entries. No other comment right now.

Birdstone – Much better than last. Same light agenda issues as Read the Footnotes and Friend’s Lake.

Borrego – Didn’t work well on off track. Not holding that against him, he’s not a workhorse anyway. Check T-Graph, I make him to be on a forging curve. Has to overcome the “Curse of the Clown”.

Quinton’s Gold Rush –beat some decent horses last in a huge field if you noticed. Biggest knock to my mind is the Lexington post wire scenario. Song of the Sword is surging and catches Quinton within about a sixteenth past the wire but Songs stride looks very choppy. Still evaluating.

Value Plus – Wish he’d run

St. Averil – Had an excuse last but got beat by a horse passing this race and gives the impression he’s just a notch below the top flight. If he’s ready and rates like he has his pace style is one that traditionally does well at 10 marks at Churchill.

Master David – The magician trains. Beat Borrego in the Sham getting 2 lengths. Borrego is a more seasoned horse now and has certainly improved off that Sham. Interesting heads up bet Borrego/Master David. Alexis Solis has jinxed this horse.

Song of the Sword – didn’t really start running until Quinton was past the wire. Gave the impression the rail was dull Lexington day, but have no evidence yet to say that yet. Didn’t like the end of the gallop out or I’d be all over this horse. Pollard Smoked him.

Pro Prado – Not sure what to make of this horse yet. Seeing if he gets in first. Note he finished a lot closer to Smarty Jones than he did to The Cliff’s Edge. I know, I know two year old year.

Eddington – He’s gonna be a good one, even if he gets in I don’t really think he’ll be good May 1st. Come Travers day, everyone may be on him.

If you’ve read carefully I’m not high on about 7 horses. That’s all I can factor out right now…and I may change my mind…lol Lets see final posts and jockey selections.