Shanahan -

Borrego (five furlongs in 1:03.74) - The first out over the track after the renovation break and like FRIENDS LAKE was never asked for any speed by exercise rider Andy Durnin, going in splits of :25.65, :37.87 and :51 before completing his final furlong in :12.74. Has made a very good appearance here all week but must be concerned by the fact he shut down completely after passing the wire, barely galloping out to the seven-eighths pole in a slow 1:19.90.

"Shut down completely" and "barely galloping out" sounds extremely negative to me. I don't know how much stock to put in any of this stuff. If the price is right (I want at least 15-1) I'll probably use him.

Ronwar -

I have no problem tossing Read the Footnotes. The last race was BAD. When was the last time you saw a horse run well in the Derby off a BAD last race? I can't recall any off the top of my head.

As for Smarty Jones, the positive is that he's fast enough to win.

The negative is the stretchout off of the HUGE races. I can't see him moving forward or even pairing his last. He won't have his own way on the front end. Do you see him stalking and PASSING Lion Heart? I don't. He hasn't faced anything like what he will see Saturday. His main contribution may be knocking heads close to the lead and setting things up for the stalkers.

I can't take a fairly short price on a horse where my main question is "how much will he back up here?" Not a great question to ask about a 6-1 shot with these. Borrego seemed to be getting closer at the end of his last race and it looked like Smarty had things pretty much his own way there. As a betting proposition, I'm going to have to take the longshots here.

Could be an "x" factor though -- Smarty seems to like it wet...

HP