Re: Change of topic (1078 Views)
Posted by:
wherethevalue (IP Logged)
Date: May 24, 2017 05:48PM
> If they are using bias that way (other horses came
> back to run 7 points higher), they might as well
> throw darts when they handicap.
I think you would be surprised.
>
> First, the paths are always changing as the
> moisture changes and as the maintenance crew
> performs work on it. The "bias" is always
> changing. Tracks will go from slow to fast or
> fast to slow throughout the day, sometimes race to
> race. The same would apply to paths.
With the exception of rain storm, a drying out surface or an ambitious track maintenance crew trying to fix the track, paths are easily calculated. Besides, don't these same dilemma's face figure-makers? are "figures" useless?
> Second, every horse has a different pattern. If a
> horse is in a dead or hot path than you have a
> horse that ran on a completely different track
> speed variant than the rest of the field, likely
> completely altering his pattern. It could change
> his last race from a Top to an Off or vice versa.
I agree that some paths are better than others on certain days, trying to discern bias through pattern reading is for astrologists, not handicappers.
> Third, they are using a sample from only a handful
> of horses. How many horses actually ran on the
> rail? 4? 5? What condition were they in that
> day? What condition were they in the next race?
> You don't have a chance of knowing any of this if
> you don't use form cycles.
Well I agree in this example 5 horses isn't much of a data point you can also use previous races to estimate. Still don't understand what condition a horse is racing in has to do with form cycles or bias.
>
> If one isn't going to use pattern context then why
> use the horse's next start to judge how much a
> bias affected a horse? Why not just use the
> previous start before the biased race?
>
> This is a very poor method to use a bias. The ones
> who use this are trying to make scientific
> adjustments to a speed figure and it's just not
> possible using the data at hand.
It's called using art and science to come up with your best guess, isn't that what handicapping is? Don't figure makes do the EXACT same thing when determining a variant for a card?