Re: Mendelssohn Beyer (1094 Views)
Posted by:
Tavasco (IP Logged)
Date: April 05, 2018 03:13PM
At first glance early speed ration smacks of %E. A well worn concept. Converting it to an integer confuses me some. I'll guess that his zero is a high %E say something close to 60%.
I use pace factors routinely and IMO @ a 1+1/4 distance I'm looking for a horse whose %E is 50%. @ 1+1/2 48% @ 5F 55-57%.
Of course the %E is irrelevant if a horses speed figure isn't competitive. A really good example is the recent Florida Derby where the two pacesetters probably earned %E ratios above 60% and consequently could not approach equaling their good race final time performance figure.
In the case of Mendelssohn (sp?) and I haven't looked at the fractions I'm suspecting your guy uses pars and the souped up track distorted his ration #. The field was not strung out instead rather well bunched early and that suggests a slower pace rather than a faster one. Secondly Mendelson the winner ran away from the field in the second half of the race suggesting late speed.
For me, and I have a Euro Centric Bias, the only important # is what the horse will pay on a win bet. i.e., I can hope you and the crowd play against him for whatever reason but he is obviously fast enough to compete for the win spot.