Re: Mendelssohn Beyer (978 Views)
Posted by:
toppled (IP Logged)
Date: April 05, 2018 11:42PM
Here's the problem with just looking at the numbers without context: the numbers are on 3 different surfaces. Many times a horse will be a totally different animal on a different surface. All we can tell from these 3 numbers in order are he was a slower animal on turf in the USA after a trip where he regressed 1.75 points off his 2 year old top and still won the Breeder's Cup race with the 9. Then he moved to poly and aged a little and ran a new top 1st time poly. Then he goes to dirt which is expected to be his best surface, being a half to Beholder and Into Mischief. Now he exploded to an amazing # So the big question is, is he a monster on dirt, or did he just freak this one time in what will be a knockout performance? We won't know until after the Derby, but with about 3 points leeway from the next best top and a Thoro-Pattern that has him almost exactly 50/50 to run just as fast or better, I'm willing to go out on the limb and think he's a monster on dirt and until proven otherwise, I am not expecting a regression although it he's comfortably in front the jockey may not ride him as strenuously to the wire in the Derby, producing a higher number without any real regression. Also,you say you've never seen a number pattern like this,but what about -.5,9.25,9.25 That's what last year's winner was & I was totally against him because of it.