Mendelssohn: Tops -1 or better before 3yo July (1245 Views)
Posted by:
BitPlayer (IP Logged)
Date: April 06, 2018 02:56PM
Last decade, TG did a a few studies of horses (not just Derby horses) that had run negative 1 or better prior to July of their 3yo year and run back within 42 days. The last version I have (from 2009, covering 2000 through 2008, n=58) shows 15.5% ran a pair or better in the next start. 32.8% ran an off race and 51.7% X'd. The percentages were a little uglier if Smarty Jones was excluded.
One other Mendelssohn-related thought: My recollection is that, back when there were more synthetic surfaces, people used to play horses going synth-to-dirt for a "poly pop." If memory serves, the poly pop was usually followed by a bounce.