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Re: Late odds changes in Dwyer (1057 Views)
Posted by: BitPlayer (IP Logged)
Date: July 08, 2018 07:58PM

There are actually two separate issues here: Jason Servis's "hot streak" and the late action.

I'm skeptical that NYRA can do anything about the former.

I've been watching a lot of NY racing lately, and it is not surprising to me for a Servis trainee to take more action than the figures would seem to warrant. What was unusual in the Dwyer was how late the money came in. My impression (perhaps mistaken) has been that the money shows early. For example, in the race after the Dwyer, Eye Luv Lulu was 7-1 when I noted the early odds and then drifted up to close at 10-1.

Some possible explanations for the late action in the Dwyer:

Fans of the past-posting narrative would probably note that Firenze Fire broke extremely well.

The composition of the betting public may have been a little different in this race than in a normal dirt stake because of the presence of Mendelssohn. I'm guessing that international money would have come in early.

A lot of people may have been sucked in by the 6-1. That was my situation. I kept waiting for the odds to drop and when they appeared to be holding up, I made a small saver play (less that .01% of $90,000). When the odds dropped, my saver was too small to save me.

The computer guys may have screwed up. I know they have algorithms, but algorithms are only as good as the world view they represent. (Anyone remember Lehman Brothers?) The computer guys may have imperfect information about what other computer groups (or some loose-cannon big bettor) are going to do.

Whatever the explanation, I agree that NYRA and/or the Gaming Commission should look into the late betting and publicize the results. I'm not optimistic this will happen. Transparency does not seem to be a priority for the officials who regulate NY racing. Try reading a NY stewards' decision some time (e.g, "After reviewing the video and speaking to the riders involved the claim of foul is disallowed and the race is official as is. Boilerplate. Boilerplate. Boilerplate.").



Subject Written By Posted
Jason Servis...HOLY COW! (2079 Views) APny 07/03/2018 09:51AM
Re: Jason Servis...HOLY COW! (1394 Views) bobphilo 07/03/2018 11:12AM
Re: Jason Servis...HOLY COW! (1318 Views) Boscar Obarra 07/03/2018 09:37PM
Re: Jason Servis...HOLY COW! (1264 Views) Molesap 07/04/2018 02:45PM
Re: Jason Servis...HOLY COW! (1159 Views) Al Caught Up 07/04/2018 06:53PM
Re: Jason Servis...HOLY COW! (2046 Views) Dana666 07/04/2018 08:50PM
Re: Jason Servis...HOLY COW! (1413 Views) toppled 07/05/2018 11:32PM
Re: Jason Servis...HOLY COW! (1080 Views) bfick 07/07/2018 04:47PM
Re: Jason Servis...HOLY COW! (1070 Views) shager 07/07/2018 05:10PM
Re: Jason Servis...HOLY COW! (1075 Views) jbelfior 07/07/2018 07:48PM
Re: Jason Servis...HOLY COW! (1197 Views) Boscar Obarra 07/07/2018 10:02PM
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Re: Jason Servis...HOLY COW! (1159 Views) Silver Charm 07/08/2018 12:39PM
Re: Jason Servis...HOLY COW! (896 Views) Boscar Obarra 07/08/2018 04:44PM
Re: Late odds changes in Dwyer (1107 Views) BitPlayer 07/08/2018 09:34AM
Re: Late odds changes in Dwyer (980 Views) Silver Charm 07/08/2018 09:45AM
Re: Late odds changes in Dwyer (999 Views) BitPlayer 07/08/2018 10:23AM
Re: Late odds changes in Dwyer (1466 Views) FrankD. 07/08/2018 02:19PM
Re: Late odds changes in Dwyer (1037 Views) Fairmount1 07/08/2018 05:18PM
Re: Late odds changes in Dwyer (957 Views) Fairmount1 07/08/2018 05:37PM
Re: Late odds changes in Dwyer (886 Views) Boscar Obarra 07/08/2018 05:48PM
Re: Late odds changes in Dwyer (932 Views) Fairmount1 07/08/2018 06:06PM
Re: Late odds changes in Dwyer (1092 Views) rezlegal 07/08/2018 06:32PM
Re: Late odds changes in Dwyer (1065 Views) TGJB 07/08/2018 06:35PM
Re: Late odds changes in Dwyer (948 Views) rezlegal 07/08/2018 06:47PM
If program betting can be this wise . . . (1012 Views) skitimber 07/08/2018 06:51PM
Re: If program betting can be this wise . . . (989 Views) FrankD. 07/08/2018 07:11PM
Re: Dwyer betting coup? (947 Views) BitPlayer 07/08/2018 10:18PM
Re: If program betting can be this wise . . . (974 Views) Mathcapper 07/09/2018 01:17AM
Re: If program betting can be this wise . . . (903 Views) jbelfior 07/09/2018 01:27PM
Re: If program betting can be this wise . . . (905 Views) Mathcapper 07/09/2018 02:55PM
Re: If program betting can be this wise . . . (915 Views) Silver Charm 07/09/2018 04:18PM
Re: If program betting can be this wise . . . (955 Views) Mathcapper 07/09/2018 04:35PM
Re: If program betting can be this wise . . . (827 Views) jbelfior 07/10/2018 08:12PM
Re: If program betting can be this wise . . . (800 Views) FrankD. 07/10/2018 09:06PM
Re: If program betting can be this wise . . . (804 Views) Fairmount1 07/10/2018 09:35PM
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Re: If program betting can be this wise . . . (809 Views) Fairmount1 07/10/2018 09:55PM
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Re: If program betting can be this wise . . . (830 Views) Mathcapper 07/11/2018 12:01AM
Re: If program betting can be this wise . . . (971 Views) FrankD. 07/11/2018 07:26AM
Re: If program betting can be this wise . . . (819 Views) trackjohn 07/11/2018 07:47AM
Re: If program betting can be this wise . . . (851 Views) rezlegal 07/11/2018 08:10AM
Re: If program betting can be this wise . . . (804 Views) trackjohn 07/11/2018 08:18AM
Re: Betting coups in the batch betting era (856 Views) BitPlayer 07/11/2018 09:07AM
Re: Betting coups in the batch betting era (991 Views) Mathcapper 07/11/2018 12:26PM
Re: If program betting can be this wise . . . (824 Views) Silver Charm 07/11/2018 02:41PM
Re: If program betting can be this wise . . . (1125 Views) Mathcapper 07/11/2018 03:05PM
Re: If program betting can be this wise . . . (1040 Views) trackjohn 07/11/2018 03:54PM
Re: If program betting can be this wise . . . (840 Views) Boscar Obarra 07/11/2018 10:36PM
Re: If program betting can be this wise . . . (874 Views) Gerard 07/12/2018 08:28AM
Re: If program betting can be this wise . . . (735 Views) Al Caught Up 07/12/2018 01:27PM
Re: If program betting can be this wise . . . (752 Views) rezlegal 07/12/2018 01:35PM
Re: If program betting can be this wise . . . (722 Views) trackjohn 07/12/2018 02:16PM
Re: If program betting can be this wise . . . (764 Views) Chas04 07/12/2018 03:19PM
Re: If program betting can be this wise . . . (844 Views) rezlegal 07/12/2018 12:24PM
Re: If program betting can be this wise . . . (782 Views) Boscar Obarra 07/12/2018 12:45PM
Re: If program betting can be this wise . . . (804 Views) Mathcapper 07/13/2018 01:55AM
Re: If program betting can be this wise . . . (758 Views) FrankD. 07/13/2018 07:37AM
Re: If program betting can be this wise . . . (758 Views) johnnym 07/13/2018 08:04AM
Re: Equal footing (755 Views) BitPlayer 07/13/2018 09:13AM
Re: If program betting can be this wise . . . (777 Views) banditbeau 07/13/2018 09:40AM
Re: Paul Matties segment with Steve Byk (1022 Views) BitPlayer 07/13/2018 09:49AM
Re: Paul Matties segment with Steve Byk (827 Views) Boscar Obarra 07/13/2018 12:17PM
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Re: Late odds changes in Dwyer (1057 Views) BitPlayer 07/08/2018 07:58PM
Re: Late odds changes in Dwyer (979 Views) JR 07/09/2018 11:22AM
Re: Late odds changes in Dwyer (896 Views) JR 07/08/2018 11:32PM
Re: Late odds changes in Dwyer (1035 Views) Mathcapper 07/09/2018 01:55PM
Re: Late odds changes in Dwyer (979 Views) mjellish 07/10/2018 03:16AM
Re: Jason Servis...HOLY COW! (1024 Views) JR 07/08/2018 07:46AM


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