Re: If program betting can be this wise . . . (802 Views)
Posted by:
Mathcapper (IP Logged)
Date: July 13, 2018 01:55AM
Boscar Obarra Wrote:
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> The pools have been under 'attack' for some time now.
>
> Byk show had Paul Matties on yesterday discussing.
Most interesting thing about the Paul Matties segment was his thoughts on how to combat the late betting action of the computer teams, which echoed Fairmount’s comment earlier in this thread about putting every dollar bet into the pools on equal footing with every other dollar.
Paraphrasing some of Paul’s comments:
>>[i]There’s at least one group that’s going through every pool and making sure that the market is correct on all of them based on the other markets. FF was 7/2 in all the other markets, but when the win bets came in at the last minute and dropped him to 5/2, he went down to 5/2 in the exactas as well based on the imputed odds the seconds after the win bets were made. That’s how fast these Totes and these computer models work. They can take the money that was bet to win and two seconds later analyze it make a bet on the exactas!
The right way to counter the late betting action is to give more weapons to the everyday players, who are the ones who are threatened the most by this. The player’s technology is lacking. In 2018, the player should have some kind of access, either through his ADW or through his phone, of a little bit of a way to counter and be able to play in the same manner as the computer guys do. With some ADWs, you can if they offer batch betting with file uploads and you can write a program, but the ease is not there. We need to get that ability to the players.
Getting more [b]information[/b] to the players was the primary concern in the 1990’s. But in 2018 it’s got to be [b]betting[/b]. The weapon that the players need now is a better betting tool. Some of the ADWs have gotten better at it, and some of the platforms are getting there, but they’re not advancing like the CAW’s are, and you’ve got to keep that playing field level.[/i]<<
NYRA has come a long way and done a terrific job with their NYRA Bets wagering interface, rewards program, ROI trackers, HD replay feeds, etc., but they’ve lagged badly in this respect. The betting public needs to be placed on the same level as the computer teams to make this a fair fight, which means file uploading and batch betting capability so that a high or low-volume player can match, dollar for dollar, exactly what the computer teams can do at the last second. Not having this capability is like using a Flinstone flip phone in the age of smartphones.
The other thing that's been proposed is to stop betting at say, 1 minute before post, but that wouldn’t change anything other than perception. The teams will still bet at the last second and the public will see the odds drop without a chance to react as always, they’ll just see it before the race goes off. The only thing that will change is the perception that any cheating may be going on related to past-posting (ala “Lucky Dan”).
Another idea, as Paul suggested, would be to put a stop on the computer teams a little earlier than everyone else. But as he says, >>[i]that’s never going to happen. The only way to really counter it is to put more power into the hands of the player.[/i]<<
Other than that, the most useful tool in the horseplayer's arsenal is the good 'ole DD Will Pays, when they're available, and when some big plunger with "magical" handicapping skills doesn't come in at the last second.