Re: Aqueduct 4/9 (360 Views)
Date: April 10, 2005 11:18PM
CTC,
"In the other scenario Bellamy ran Going Wild into the ground."
IMO, that scenario is less likely because Scrappy T was up there with them and he hung around fairly well. I think it is much more likely that Going Wild was just terrible for whatever reason (though chasing that horse sure didn't help matters).
"Though fast, this horse was not seriously challenged in the Wood. He walked and he didn't walk because he ran a monster pace effort."
I agree that he wasn't challenged, but the pace was more or less in line with the final time. So if the final time was fast (which I think everyone agrees it was) the pace was also actually faster than average for 3YOs at this time of year.
"Theres some very quick horses lining up for the Derby and I think every trainer out there now realizes this horse has to be engaged."
Even though I think this horse is unlikely to duplicate his 119 Beyer/-4 TG at 10F with some pressure, on an honest racetrack, against a real Grade 1 field, I'm not sure I would want it to be my horse that's the one to challenge him early in the Derby. I think it's going to be close to impossible to run hard with this horse, put him away, and win -if he stays even reasonably close to this sharp.
I'll tell you one thing. If I trained High Limit, Rockport Harbor or another speed/presser type, I'd give him some lessons on how to relax behind horses over the next few weeks - assuming they all make it that far.