jimbo66 wrote:

> So Chuckles, your point is that the comments I was referring to
> about GZ were made by you after the race, instead of before the
> race? Ok, I will give you that. I didn't research the
> comments, i was posting from memory, I just remember the
> comments about you looking forward to betting against him
> again, because the race in the BC was not "true" Doesn't
> sound like you diagree, you called it an "abomination".

Thats correct. I still believe the B.C. Classic fell apart for a number of reasons and was run on a track becoming wicked. Roses in May looked good in winning the Dubai World Cup however and that bodes well for TGraphs scoring of the BC Classic. However my post race comments pertaining to Ghostzappers leisurely fractions still apply to how I view his chances in a true race and they apply equally to Bellamy Road. Neither the BC Classic nor the Wood was a race at all.


>
> "Providing I am extremely confident in the number". What is
> that, a shot at Beyer or T-Graph?

I'm just saying a number is going to be very difficult to make in the circumstances. Shug doubted Survivalists distance ability all along. Do you think he got better at the Woods 9 marks? Do you think Golden Missile was right? Do you think Scrappy T was ready? If TGJB says Neg 4 thats big weight. But if you ask him how certain he is, I bet hes gonna give you a probability.

> I am generally "confident" in numbers, not extremely confident.
> But in this case, what the numbers told me after the Wood
> coincide with what my eyes saw, which makes me very confident.
>
>
> The bigger problem is when the numbers don't correspond with
> what your eyes saw. The example I can remember is Harlan's
> Holiday. When I saw him inhale the Floriday Derby field a few
> years back, I was sure it was a big figure and a derby winner.
> But the Beyer came back slow (I don't know about the T-Graph, I
> wasn't following T-Graph figures then). That is a tougher
> call.
>
> As for "says who", with regards to the horses in the Wood being
> as fast as the horses in the SA Derby, I am referring to
> T-GRaph figures. You are on the T-Graph board, so you don't
> mind if I use their figures instead of your home-made figures,
> especially seeing as I don't have your figures..........

That was a very impressive visual race. It tied a track record. TGraph is gonna score it large. I think theres a little more to it though and I hope the odds incentive is there for those that want to say "not so fast".

CtC