Boy, I sure do not see how this race will be bettable. In my view, better to be a spectator on this one. Apologies to all but Classhandicapper for how the following will sound like the usual phony argument we hear from Classhandicapper.

To me, there are a 'big three' and the secondary contenders are not that far behind them. The big three are High Limit, Consolidator, and Sun King. From a pattern perspective, I actually like the latter two ahead of High Limit. Everybody seems to agree that Consolidator has a nice line, so there is nothing to discuss there. As to High Limit and Sun King, I like Sun King's pattern better.

High Limit came out with a great number as a two year old and went backwards in his second start. He is now coming back after matching his two year old top. Normally, that is very positive, but the pattern of his two year old campaign troubles me a bit. In the race of the week, there is the assertion that Sun King may be this year's model of Birdstone. I think there is a greater risk of High Limit being this year's version of Birdstone. On balance, I give High Limit a 33% chance of moving forward, 33% of pairing, and a 33% chance of regressing. However, I also think there is a real risk that High Limit could lose ground on the first turn and he is running against horses who, with a better trip, can beat him. He could easily move forward to a zero and not break into the exacta in this race.

Sun King has a beautiful two year old line. He came back as a three year old by busting through is 2 year old top. This is much better than High Limit in and of itself. His bounce at Tampa is something I view as excusable coming off an early season zero. Quite frankly, the Tampa figure would worry me more if it was a better fig (like a 1 or a 2). Also, Tampa is a notoriously difficult track for horses to ship into and his off effort there can be excused somewhat by the ship (if you apply the same reasoning to his Breeders Cup effort, then you have a horse who has not bounced). In the race of the week, it is mentioned that Zito has been training his horses to improve as the season goes on and not fire the first out. I suspect that this is true, and I suspect it applies to Sun King. In my view, the fact he ran a zero in his first out should not be held against him (I suspect it was as much a surprise to Zito as it was to people who follow Zito's training patterns). Taken from that perspective, there would be every reason to think that Sun King will be breaking through that zero sooner rather than later. I do not think his sheet looks like Birdstone's at all. Birdstone had an unheathly looking pattern for a number of reasons (failure to return to his two year old top for an inordinately long time being chief amoung them) and none of those apply here. I look at this horse more like Monarchos (with the off effort at Tampa for Sun King comparing to Monarchos's off effort in the Wood). I peg this horse as having a 35% chance of coming back to his zero and about a 35% chance of going into negative territory. However, I do not like to bet horses at the odds that his will be unless they really look overwhelming (which he does not compared to what I think Consolidator can do (and High Limit for that matter) and taking into consideration that he may well lose some ground on both turns).

Closing Argument and Mr. Sword are not so far behind the big three that they could not get up there without advantageous trips.

I think Bandini is a bet against, but how well bet will he be anyway?

So, apologies to all for not really offering an opinion here and throwing a wet blanket on other peoples' opinions, but I would be afraid that Sun King could ruin peoples' plans (while not himself being good enough to justify backing at his odds).