Forgive my ignorance, as I'm new to T-Graph, and "sheets" in general, but why does "everyone seem to agree that Consolidator has a nice line"? He went from a 6 to a 1 (a big new top). Doesn't this make him a likely bounce candidate?

DLF--Consolidator went from 6 to 1 this year in his two starts. However, last year at 2, he established a top of 3-1/2, so the development is not 5 points, rather it's 2-1/2 points.

You have to figure he wasn't cranked for his return this year. Often horses need a race or two, if they're real good, to get back to their 2yo top. Trainer styles obviously can affect conditioning but as a general rule good younger horses should be running tops at least every other race. Consolidator's juvenile tops, 6-1/2 and 3-1/2, affected him, but he did develop and improve with time as he should since he's in a dynamic growth phase.

The debut 6 this year wasn't great, but it wasn't terrible either. It was his 2nd best effort ever, what we term an off effort, more than 1 point but less than 4 points worse than his top at the time--an abeyance figure. In other words we'll wait to the next performance to see where he's at, and come through he did with the new top.

So he fulfilled our general rule--new top 2nd out. He improved on his 2yo top, but not so much as to project an automatic bounce. Storm Cat sires early developers and his get on average improve 2-3/4 points from 2 through 3 (sire profile--TGI age columns). So Consolidator is within the threshold albeit just about at that limit. But the good ones might exceed it a bit. Remember the TGI is an average of all foals--good and bad.

Now there is a question as to how much more Consolidator might develop at this time but vis-a-vis the entrants here, he's within 1 or 2 lengths of Sun King at his best and that makes him a contender here.

And JB notes in the ROTW 3yos at this time of year tend to pair up, Lukas is good in Kentucky and Consolidator has run well at Kee before.

Forward movement is always good although tops can be double-edged. Too much can be tough to handle in the short-term but good stakes quality, healthy 3yos should be able to pump out repeated good efforts.



TGAB