First off since this is the TGraph ROTW, I'll take a moment to review it with the Tgraph figures but will do so after running down the field.

SunKing - Everyone is looking at his Tampa race and saying "oh my, poor horse, he fell off". Really?....it looks to me like no one wanted the lead, he sat chilly on it, repulsed everything that came his way and widened late in good finishing order. Nicky used Tampa in a different pace fashion for TCE last year and things went pretty well for him in the Bluegrass. Nicky has said he dearly loves Tampa as a conditioning track. I know something about that. Anyone pooh poohing this horse on his Tampa T Fig is probably in error. This horse is also far quicker than folks realize. My issue is 9 marks with him. I'm not altogether sure he can run as fast as he is probably going to be asked to run this race and still finish strong. Beating Survivalist and Monarch Lane is suddenly looking like that and a buck in your pocket will get you a cup of coffee. I can't see where hes ever really trained on a track hes run on so I wont hold that against him. Tough Call, with the added weight and post I'm leaning against him for the win, but Nicky is so very hot right now, I know I'm taking a chance.

Closing Arguement - I don't care if they did put the for sale sign up. I would too. They didn't sell him did they? This horse drew very well, doesnt have to have the lead and is sneaky quick. I don't like his breeding, but that last race rocks and hes working beautifully at Keeneland. Major Player.

Bandini - He's a Fupig so my inclination is to toss him, but the problem is he's speed juiced by Pletcher and you can't do that. He's also much quicker than folks may understand. He's acclimated to the track as well. Still I'm thinking the post/trip, weight, my disdain for his sire and the tough company is enough to keep him out of the winners circle. I'm even more leary of leaving this one out of the top than Zito's and may cover with him. I'm not sure yet.

Spanish Chestnut - No weight bugaboo. Is acclimating too but I dont like his steps near as much as Bandini or Closing Arguement. I think this horse plays a large role in the outcome. From the hole with a good break he rockets. His layoff and mud races have to be viewed with an eye towards less than top form in my opinion. Though I'm not altogether sure his speed is up to the east coast speed, the circumstances, depending upon the track, could play in his favor to land a minor piece at a very solid price. Though I'm more inclined to think he mucks it up for the others.

Consolidator - Suddenly beating Giacomo and Don't Get Mad doesnt look like much of an accomplishment either and this horse has LESS speed than most think and really caught a biased surface in my opinion last. Is picking up some weight, but has carried it before, and is working listen carefully here(Lights out). I like him to rate just off and move past some of the others late.

to be continued...
ok where was I...

Mr. Sword - I like this horses stalking pace style for this race and notice he was picked up late by two closers last. Theres really no closers to pick him up this race and if he can get first and only run on battling pace horses he may be able to pick up some pieces late. The weight is kind, the jockey change positive for Keeneland. I'm not altogether sure he can't step it up a bit. The price will decide if I work him in.

High Limit - Jimbo66 said I couldnt talk about pace potential and bias so I'm afraid I can't really discuss this horse. Jimbo66 wants to hear good things, so here it is...hes carried the weight and is working extremely well. There was something else I wanted to add about figure maturity and trainer impact too...oh well.

Now TGraph's modifications:

Mr. Sword - Moves further up on Tgraph, will definitely work him into wager.

Closing Arguement - Tfigs both temper and confirm my enthusiasm. The pace style and pattern are positive. The layoff is the concern but I think he's moving forward.

Spanish Chestnut - TFigs dont shed kind light on him. I still think he has minor piece potential

Consolidator - More or less where I made him. I think he regresses slightly this race but that can still be good enough.

High Limit - Right where I anticipated him, but can't talk about it.

Sun King - Has his work cut out Saturday is my belief and I'm paying little mind to the Tampa number. Theres more important hurdles for him to overcome.

Bandini - Despite it all, I get the feeling he can move a little forward I'm not quite as big on him winning, but I'll put him on top for one save provided he's in the 5-1 range I anticipate.

Good Luck



Post Edited (04-15-05 17:23)