Re: Blue Grass (411 Views)
Date: April 15, 2005 07:54AM
If the DRF poll is any indication of how the race will be bet, I think it will be unbettable.
I see the same speed figures as everyone else, but I think the major contenders are not seperated by all that much.
Consolidator and High Limit obviously ran the fastest races last out.
Sun King's last race may have been slower, but I can't take that race at 100% face value. He only ran hard for the last 2-3 furlongs and was running at close to a 12 second clip per furlong. In order to put up his usual speed figure he would have had to come home in sub 12s. That's not something that most horses can do - even very good ones. It wasn't like the typical race where a dominant horse runs his race all the way. I'm not sure how fast he will run, but I'd be shocked if he doesn't run faster than his last.
Bandini is a little slower than the others and has the outside post, but just look at Pletcher's overall record with young developing horses. He doesn't have that high win percentage because he picks bad spots and doesn't develop them. They make come out running, but they do slowly develop and get spotted masterfully along the way. He probably deserves to be a little longer in the odds than the others, but he will be.
Heck, based on the DRF poll Closing Argument will probably be the best value to use in the exotics. I just don't like playing horses in Grade 1 races to win off more than 2 months.