davidrex -

I'm not trying to talk you off Closing Argument. In fact, I may end up using him tomorrow. I was just pointing out the small sample, with the possibility of being skewed by any number of factors. You mention one. Another is that only the best of Successful Appeal's offspring may have been stretched out to this point. Unless Successful Appeal is really something special, a decline in the five point sprint-route differential seems inevitable as the sample gets larger.

On the flip side, Successful Appeal offspring may turn out to be fine at 10F, and a lot off bettors may abandon Closing Argument because of his breeding (think Funny Cide/Distorted Humor and Smarty Jones/Elusive Quality). So far, Closing Argument doesn't seem to have gotten less effective as the distances have gotten longer.

Disclosure: Successful Appeal cost me money once or twice as a spring 3yo.