Dear Jimbo66,

Thank you. You are in fact correct and I misread the ROTW. Correcting for my misread, I would reduce the chance of a negative number to 20% and increase the chance of the pair up to 50%.

As to High Limit, I am still giving him a 66% chance of running a '1' or better, so it is not like I am tossing him. I am just saying that if his two year old campaign were different, I would increase those percentages.

I do not put any stock in 'how' any of his numbers were earned. Although there are times when looking at circumstances surrounding an effort may be relevant, I do not consider any of what you or others have offered as being relevant. I do not like his second Delaware number for precisely the reason you like it -- it was a small step backward after a very fast number. It would have been better if he paired up, moved ahead, or ran a lot worse. The pair up and new top are obvious positives. The bounce is not such a surprise for a 2 year old coming off a debut fig of a 2. The small step back can be problematic sometimes and a tip off of greater problems. It means he was on (likely not injured), but could not run his race (could not replicate what he had done before). It makes me wonder some about the first number too. Also, with only three races, he could really be an ouchy horse which introduces another area of risk. He and Birdstone had the same debut number (although Birdstone earned it earlier his two year old year, so B's was better) and look what that did to Birdstone. Birdstone also went backwards off his 3 y.o. debut (although he may have add an excuse). Anyway, High Limit is obviously a very fast horse, and it would not surprise me if he won with a big number. However, I do see some risk in him (both in terms of the type of trip I see him getting and the type of effort I see him putting out).

I just really do not see this race as a good betting race. First off, having only 7 horses makes it much harder to find value (the take is spread out over less options and therefore eats more of the possible prices). Second, the top three choices all have a strong chance and are all likely to be well supported. The fourth choice is the only possible bet against in my opinion. There are some long horses to like here (Closing Argument and Mr. Sword), but having only 7 horses hurts how long they might be. To me, it is just one of those races that is too tough.

Now, on a completely different matter, you said you thought I was wrong about my analysis of Point Given's Kentucky Derby, so I decided to go back and look at the chart.

According to the chart I read, he was 3 and 3/4 lengths back of a 6 furlong split of 1:09 and 1. According to Thorograph, he was in the 4 lane on the first turn. To me, that has him running the first 6 furlongs of the Kentucky Derby in 1:09 and 2. In fact, other than he and Congaree, all the other horses who were within 7 lengths of the 44 and 4 half were tiring badly (if you accept my wide adjustment, his half mile was 45 and 2). By the mile, it was only him and Congaree still standing to face the closers. Given what this pace did to the others who were caught up in it, he did not do so badly.

In general, I think pace is overrated, but I do think if a horse runs too (and I mean too) fast early, he pays for it in final time because it is an inefficient way to spend an effort compared to spreading the effort out better. This does not happen as often as people think, but it does happen and when it does, I am forgiving of the horse's off effort in that case (see my race of the week analysis and forgiveness of two off efforts by Don Six in Spring/Summer 2004).

Some people say that Point Given ran a poor derby because he only had two preps. It is interesting that his only one prep for the Santa Anita Derby had no ill effect (he was able to move forward off one prep down to a zero).

To me, this pace scenario is as much of an explanation for his poor figure in the Derby as the idea that having only two prep races caused the bad effort. People are free to disagree with me. Quite frankly, I am happy about it -- I hope gobs of money are bet by people based the Kentucky Derby prep angle espoused by Classhandicapper. It is things like this that still leave nice prices for us sheetplayers.