well I had typed a very detailed response to the above three posts and my computer crashed.......errrr

thanks for everyones input....

its actually easier for me to make decisions when I see obvious reasons to dismiss a bad effort, its when the figures are tight that it can be tough. I mean a horse is likely to pair up but its hard for me to say he is going to move forward. Guess thats where old fashioned handicapping principles come into play.