Saddle,

This is actually an area where the TGI stat can help a little.

Let's say you have tight numbers and no real year to year improvement. Like in your original point. Assuming the horse CAN run a little better, you have to imagine HOW MUCH better can he realistically run.

I will look at the TGI and if there's a nice big sample there and the TGI for overall 2yo is 19 and for 3yo it is 16, I may figure that the horse, at best, could improve three lengths. So if he's running 11's, and I think he might get better, maybe he'll run an 8. If an 8 puts him in the mix at a price, I might use him. If I spot some other thing I like, I might go for more. If he's not a price, I'm probably going to pass. It gives you a starting point at least to IMAGINE how much he can move up... I originally couldn't imagine what to do with the TGI thing but I've found it does help in this year to year stuff...

I would add that this is exactly where old fashioned handicapping principles DON'T come into play for me. You've got to have faith in the figures and your ability to read the patterns. Falling back on the old stuff just turns it into mush.

As just one example, how many "well bred, lightly raced horses from top barns" will be prices? Especially if they have an "improving workout line" that everyone on Earth will see? Sure they stand a chance, maybe a damn good chance, but how many of them will be more than 3-1? Not too many! The TOTAL STIFFS that fit this description will be 4-1.

The whole point of TG is to bet on the horse that looks best on TG! Get rid of this class/old barn crap. If the class/old barn horse isn't as fast on TG as a 10-1 shot that has a pattern to run you better play the 10-1 shot or you're wasting your time! If you're going to use TG and bet what looks best elsewhere you're wasting money somewhere along the line.

I don't usually play California, but that 4th at HOL looks interesting tmw. (Thurs.). Charbonnier (!) and Charmvictor look better than the favorites (Rush Country and Tiz Afire). Will that morning line hold up? Let's hope!

HP