"I mean a horse is likely to pair up but its hard for me to say he is going to move forward."

In allowance and preliminary stakes races:

All else being equal, you are better off with well bred, lightly raced horses from top barns.

Among very lightly raced 2 and 3 year olds of quality, a much improved workout line is often a tipoff to a big step forward.

All else being equal, I'd rather have a horse in his 2nd-4th race off a layoff vs. one that has had a long campaign.

Personally, I believe a lot of fluctuations in figures are related accuracy issues, trips, paces, biases, the competitive nature of races, and day to day ups and downs that are no different than why I shoot pool well on day and poorly the next (not much of a reason).



Post Edited (06-01-05 18:09)