I dont remember Giacomo's preakness figure but I am guessing it was a pair, which gives him a pair-top-pair, which on the thoro patterns is about 54% to pair or run a top.....but in my thinking I would imagine the last two races would take somehting out of him and three weeks wont be enough and an off or x is coming at low odds.

Afleet Alex has a strange pattern for me, looks like x-top-x-pair (i think from memory), and I have no idea what the thoro pattern is on that but I bet its not good to pair + top, and he will be even money.