Re: Thoro Patterns (420 Views)
Posted by:
TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: June 02, 2005 03:19PM
When we do the studies, all the races have to be within 42 days of the next, no surface or trainer switches, all sprints or all routes. Some horses you come up with are "pure"-- they fit all those criteria. Many do not-- so what I do is try and figure out to what degree and in what way the differences matter. For example-- if a trainer change is not to or from a move-up guy and/or appears to have had no significant effect on the horse's performance, I ignore it.
On the other hand, an average "top" is probably 2-3 points, depending on age-- if I'm looking at one off a 5 point top, I take that into consideration, and sometimes how fast the number is. Bellamy Road's Derby TP would have been the same if the last had been a neg 2 or neg 5, but his chance of pairing the number would not have been the same.
TGJB