NC Tony,

I respectfully disagree, I just do not think there is a meaningful sample to draw the conclusions that everybody else relies on to suggest a horse cannot perform well in the Derby off 2 preps (or other form of light prep). I, personally, have no problem betting a horse off 2 preps (like Private Vow for example if he otherwise looks good on the sheet). Also, Victory Gallop and Sunny's Halo are certainly counter examples (and if we searched, I am sure there are more -- the issue is not looking at Derby winners only but to look also at horses who gave superior performances in the Derby (which for one reason or another may not have been a winning performance)).

I am glad I am on the other side of conventional wisdom because it will help my price.

Anyway, the whole debate over underprepping has already been had last year -- should be in the archives somewhere. What has not been discussed is the possibility of overprepping or peaking too soon. It seems to me like this might be a live issue with the current Derby fav Brother Derek.

Respectfully,

SCM2