Re: asshandicapper - Number of Derby Preps (569 Views)
Posted by:
bobphilo (IP Logged)
Date: March 15, 2006 04:22PM
Tony,
Sorry if this sounds like mere rhetoric to you, but the best data in the world is useless unless it’s used in a the appropriate statistical test and interpreted correctly. The worst use of it is to assume that 2 prep horses are at a disadvantage simply because more 3+ prep horses have won. That’s just as bad as saying that grays are at a disadvantage because most Derby winners have been bays. The error is obvious. The correct way to do it is to look at how 2 prep vs. 3+ prep horses have done that is not distorted by the differences in the proportion of the field they make up. The study posted by Bit Player uses the data correctly and shows that those with less than 3 preps do slightly better in all categories and much better in terms of running new tops. This is in perfect agreement with a larger study done by Guirin that shows that horses generally run their best race 3rd off a lay-off.
Horses like Bellamy Road and Bandini, who were injured during the race, and High Limit who has distance limitations are terrible arguments for 3+ preps. Do you really think they would have run better after another prep?
I’ve yet to see a good study that says a horse needs more than 2 preps to run his best race in the Derby. In fact, all the good evidence is to the contrary.
Bob