Fellas:

Its nice to try to attain an advantage in any wagering event, especially the event we most fancy.. the Derby.

But I sometimes fail to grasp why we all expect to be able to somehow codify the Derby using common handicapping logic, whether it be derived from pedigree or performance figures or dosage formulae or recent trends. I for one think the fact that no BC Juvie winner has come back to win the Derby is a statistical aberration.

My point is that although the Derby is almost always a great betting race.. and part of the best P4 of the year (the sequence which includes the Humana Distaff (won last year by long priced My Trusty Cat) and the Early Times turf race (won last year by long priced America Alive)).. there is no reason to subject it to a lot of the knowledge we employ every day in handicapping overnight races. Why?

1) How often do horses run in 20 horse fields?

2) How often do we bet a field of horses where almost every one of the contenders is untried at the distance?

3) How about the fact that 2 of America's top trainers (R. Frankel and T. Pletcher) have had very little impact on the race, and especially in the case of the latter, that might change in any given year?

As I have said in the past, go back to the endless though fascinating posts surrounding Giacomo's Derby. Do a search for Giacomo going back to January leading up to the race. Did any of the oft mentioned indicators point to Giacomo? How many of the brilliant posters (and I dont mean that facetiously) who like to post here especially at Derby time take a strong position on Giacomo?

Personally, I researched the 05 Derby as extensively as any Derby in the last 30. I ended up using 5 horses --25% of the field-- in a multiple race wager, and after 5/8s of a mile not one of them had an honest chance to win. I will be a passive observer of this years Derby debate, chiming in only when a post about the Derby offends my sense of "taste and decency". Might take all of a day.

In re 2Y0 experience, last years best 3Y0 was the most seasoned 2Y0.

As to Classhandicapper, Robespierre and Indulto have been pillorying him from the start, going back to about the first or second of his posts over there. The best thing about Class is his ability to sway from one end of an argument to another-- sometimes within his own post.

Have just returned from 10 days in that winter wonderland, Moscow. On the ninth of the ten days, I made my wife take me to the Hippodrome (opens for racing March 18) over her friend's and family's objections that only hardened criminals would be seen within 500 yards of the place. Took some photos of the facility, which dates back to 1834 and is just amazing to look at...