You say that we are chasing our tails while you continue to see an advantage that is just not there. Would you say that grays are at a disadvantage because most Derby's are won by bays and chestnuts. That's just the kind of logic you're using here. According to your reasoning, any gray that wins the Derby is bucking a trend. Your statements that the raw numbers support your position is based on the fact that the numbers tell you things. Sorry to tell you this but any statistician knows that raw numbers don't tell you anything until they are interpreted properly. Do you just use raw unadjusted times in your handicapping? No you interpret them in relation to the track variant. Raw number of winners tells you nothing unless you interpret them in relation to what proportion of the field has the value of the variable your trying to measure. Every properly done study shows no advantage for horses with 3 or more preps. If you want to bet your money on a theory with no statistcal merit where all the good evidence points in the opposite direction, feel free, it's your money.

Bob