SoCal and Bob,

I hear what you are saying. In fact If I dig through the thread from last year I can give you many names of lightly raced or under prepared horses in the recent past (ie since 1993 as I recall). I am not saying a two prep horse can never win the Derby. However you do have a 130 year history of it not happening. And you do have recent history, where horses which had stamina built into them were better prepared for the DERBy TRAIL (like that one Steve!!). We also have discussed ad infinitem that horses today are more fragile than they were in past due to breeding practices, Drugs including use of steriods etc, inbreeding towards speed. Yes someday you may get value for the "under prepped"horse which by your definition now is 2 prep races and possibly under raced as a 2 yo.

And as I recall last year we had quite a few that fit the under prepped scenario. Does Anyone remember a horse named Bellamy Road? if that is the kind of value you are looking for? I also Think a Horse by the name of High Limit was another 2 prep wonder. I don't remember if Bandini also went that route. But anyway. The value last year was definitely in the "over" prepped horse category.

None the less Bob what is the statiscal error you are talking of? 130 years of History? The Last 15 years? Maybe the last 5 years? How bout last year? Choose your sample to proove your theory instead of Rhetoric. Data talks. Any good statistician will tell you that. With Good Data you can make Good Decisions.

NC Tony