King,
Of course the horse with "the proper path and seasoning" has an advantage in the Derby. The problem is you are assuming what you are trying to prove in your argument, that proper seasoning consists of a 3 prep minimum with proper evidence. For there to be a correlation, as you claim the link must not be caused by chance. If the ovewhelming numbber of contenders in a race have a certain trait, then that trait will win a vast majotity of the times by shear weight of more chances to win. That's chance and not true correlation. One of the most poweful angle in racing 3rd race of the lay-off. To play against this angle is just asking to lose.
If you want to compare 2 prep with 3+ prep horses you have to take into account the much greater number of chances the 3+ prep horses have had to win. When done properly the studies show these over-prepped horses do no better than those(which every study shows are optimally prepped) percentage-wise. You have go beyond the raw numbers.

Bob