Re: asshandicapper (589 Views)
Posted by:
bobphilo (IP Logged)
Date: March 15, 2006 01:58PM
SCM,
Agree with you 100% on the prep race issue. The 3 race minimum philosophy is based on a stistcal error in interpreting the data. It's like saying that grey horses are at a disadvantage because most winners of the race have been bays or chestnuts. Historically most horses pointed for the Derby have been given 3 or more preps so, of course, this group will have the biggest number of winners.
There is no good evidence to prove that horses coming into he Derby "underprepped" lost for that reason. On the other hand, there is a great body of data that says horses run their best races 3rd time off the lay-off.
The fact that this is the Derby does not change the laws of probabilities.
Didn't JB do a figures based study on this last year which debunked the 3 prep theory? Tell us what you found, Jerry.
Bob