Alydar,

I can add nothing to your latest exposition. I agree.

Some minor cleanup:

I was not trying to draw a direct analogy between handicapping and the stock market. I was simply picking up on one common thread between the two 'markets' -- the digestion and incorporation of readily available information into the price of an asset.

You still have not answered my question (I note HP's concurrence), which is fine b/c I don't think there is a handicapper alive with a positive ROI where the use of jockey ROI (not jockey skill, but Jockey ROI) is any meaningful part of his/her success.

When we talk about ROI, so-called "hot streaks" are relevant (and when I say 'relevant' I don't mean relevant in that I want to incorporate it into my morning line but relevant in that you should not have so easily dismissed my point about 'hot streaks') for two reasons: 1) a recent hot or bad streak will cause ROI to deviate from the long-term trend based on what you call 'established competence' and 2) the crowd may overvalue recent success, often in part because of a recent surge in ROI. My point, and I think we agree, is that once we have an opinion on the jockey, we factor that into the horses morning line. His ROI, however, is not something to factor in. I won't give horse 'A' an addiitional 1% chance of winning on Thursday just because JD's ROI jumped from $1.60 to $1.85 in the last couple of days and neither would you. Over time, of course, as jockeys improve or decline, we need to factor that in, but this exercise is at the margins.