JB,

I have spent a summer of racing trying to objectively find out if "sheets" are a bunch of bologna or if there is something to it. Six weeks of Saratoga racing and a bunch of cards from Delmar. In case you aren't tracking it yourself your ROI on your Saratoga analysis for the summer was -18%. Somewhere between the takeout on win bets and exotics. This is the entire meet. Those cards I didn't buy, I downloaded from the redboard room. Not horrible, but certainly not good. I have to admit, slightly better than my own ROI at Saratoga this summer, but then again, I am not a pro and I had a lousy meet.

Today was a pretty lousy day as well. "A-" plays on Pies Prospect and Snookie's Boy coming out of the lousy Haskell kind of typify my problem with the sheets. The Haskell was a lousy race, as some on this board pointed out. But that "negative" key race has no home in your theories. I am curious as to why you suspect they both ran up the track, especially Snookie's Boy. I guess Laura's Lucky Boy running 3rd in another race T-Graph loved wasn't a bad race, but it certainly didn't help anybody cash.

Anyway, this isn't meant to be an "flame" email. Just my honest view at summer end. Objectively speaking, I can't say for sure that the product doesn't work, but the fact that for a six week sample, you lost about what the takeout is, doesn't support a lot of value added either. What I have seen from using the sheets analysis product is the following, which I would like to hear feedback from others on, if possible.

1. It is clear that often, the sheets plays move and affect the odds. I have seen T-Graph picks that don't as much form to the normal handicapper, go off at underlaid odds quite often.

2. It is my own opinion that it is easier to "weed out" the lesser T-Graph picks than it is to point out the higher % plays. I am convinced the major flaw in the system is the complete disregard to pace. The last two weeks I have used the product, I have not bet any races where it was obvious to me that the pace scenario did not factor into the handicapper's pick and was likely to impact the result. (no JB, I did not post beforehand, because I don't work for Ragozin and don't want to discredit you, I wanted to win money playing the ponies this summer)

3. Playing only the T-Graph picks the last two weeks that I felt ignored pace, lowered the ROI loss for the period from -22% to -6%, a little better. Of course this requires objectivity. A "pace problem" as defined by me is not the same as defined by anybody else.

4. I didn't find any increase in ROI on "B" selections, versus "B+" selections versus "A-" selections. Again, only a sample of one summer (1 1/2 meets)

Considering all these things, I am stuck as to a conclusion. I have given some thought to the validity of betting "against" the Sheets opinion as a strategy in instances where point #1 occurs (the odds reflect a strong sheets opinion that I strongly disagree with). Two examples would be betting against Snookie's Boy today and with Midas Eyes in the Forego. But although they are great examples, i am not sure this is a viable strategy either.

I don't know. Sheets, valid handicapping tool or is JB a marketing genius?

I really don't know.

Better luck next year.